For a low-carbon start to our Rotary new year, for our first in-person meeting of 2024, John Bidwell, a local electric vehicle enthusiast, designer, and builder, shared a wide-ranging overview of the status of electric vehicles from his EV Buyer’s Guide. He started by pointing out that he planned to talk about only truly electric vehicles, not hybrids or plug-in hybrids.
Modern electric vehicles began to become available in the mid-2000s with Tesla and China leading the way. In the two decades since then, improvements have led to EVs that can afford to include long-range batteries, two high-performance motors, four-wheel drive, a roomy interior, and a comfortable ride. DC fast chargers are now available along all of the freeways in the US. Sales are growing worldwide and in the US. Although the initial cost of an EV is high, the total cost of ownership is lower than for an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle because fueling costs and maintenance costs are lower. Also initial costs are coming down with higher volumes, new technology, and widely available tax incentives. The use of widely distributed quality fast chargers makes cross-country travel practical for EVs.
There are several myths about EVs that are not true now if they ever were. EVs are said to be worse for the climate because of power-plant emissions and battery manufacturing. Although both battery manufacturing and power-plant emissions are significantly greater for EVs than for ICEs, this is more than made up for by the lack of tailpipe emissions – through their lifespans, EVs generate 13% less CO2 than hybrid electric vehicles and 27% less CO2 than ICE vehicles.
Sales of EVs are growing with a 40% increase in available models (to 95 models) last year and numerous available tax credits resulting in some one million of them being sold in the US last year. Sales of EVs accounted for 8% of the sales in the US, 19% in China, and 15% worldwide. In the US, Tesla accounted for around 60% of the EVs sold, the remainder coming from eight other manufacturers all of whom have good products but less availability. Although most of these vehicles are passenger cars, there are electric trucks either now available (e.g., Ford, Rivian) or soon to be available (e.g., GMC).
Some of the issues that affect willingness to buy an EV are the relatively high initial cost (as contrasted with the total cost of ownership), lack of education about EV use, charging, and range, and fast-charging problems for non-Tesla vehicles (Combined Charging System stations being unreliable, limited in availability, and difficult to use). Tesla supercharger sites will eventually provide many brands the ease-of-use and speed now available to Teslas. EV batteries are becoming better. The US has sufficient lithium deposits to meet our long-term needs but large investments are required to bring them on stream. Evolution of battery design is resulting in use of less harmful metals and different electrolyte compositions (e.g., lithium-iron-phosphate). Another issue is that the vehicles may be built with front-wheel drive, rear-wheel drive, or all-wheel drive, with resulting differences in cost to operate and available range.
Actual charging of the batteries in an EV is typically done at very low cost using 240-volt power. Of course, this cost varies from supplier to supplier and commonly with time of day, but the charging can be done any time of day.
The Inflation Reduction Act, along with other tax laws around the country, provides a significant amount of credit against buying an EV, either new or used. However, the rules are sufficiently arcane, with variability around source of materials in the vehicle and individual income level, that the buyer has to do research with suppliers.
Mr. Bidwell closed with a whirlwind tour of some 28 EV models, including mid-priced and luxury sedans as well as EV trucks, showing both an estimated price before tax credits ranging from around $25,000 to $300,000 (with, of course, reduced prices for used models) as well as an estimate of the travel range.
Questions:
Ultimately, will both Teslas and non-Teslas be charged using the same charging equipment? Yes, the SuperCharger will ultimately be available for all brands.
There are stories about inordinately long repair times for accident damage. Apparently true. There is only one body shop in Fort Collins that can handle repairs of Teslas and the delay time may be weeks.
Does the information about total operation cost include the cost of power generation? After commenting about the CO2 generation by an ICE vehicle, he suggested that the average cost for charging an EV would be on the order of $0.10 per KwHr, your cost as the electrons come out of your wall socket.
What is the actual up-front cost of a Tesla? Mr. Bidwell guestimated that the cost would be on the order of $40,000 to $53,000, but that doesn’t include any benefit of pre-tax credits. He also cautioned that prices/costs can change daily so those numbers are really only a rule of thumb.